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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still