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With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season on fire.

While it is not his strongest opening to a campaign - he found the net 11 times in his opening seven appearances in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it still puts him three goals ahead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks makes it even more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Certainly, physical problems might significantly impact in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so early in the season.

Firstly, the number of goals he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of scoring opportunities he's creating.

And second, the slow start his typical competitors for the award have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a English league attacker has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a statistic haphazardly selected by data analysts, but by Premier League history.

And if we look at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this term from regular situations, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more good opportunities to score than anyone else.

In fact, even if Haaland wasn't superior at finishing chances than any other player in the competition, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is illustrated by breaking down the total and standard of chances that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this campaign, 12 more than all other attackers.

This is actually not especially surprising for him - he had actually taken more open-play attempts at this point in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the previous term).

What's particularly unprecedented even for him is the quality of chances he has had this season. His efforts have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Among footballers attempting at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to score on average - thanks to a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the chances he has had in the current season have been considerably more favorable to score from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. Following seven matches last season he had scored 10 goals - four additional compared to every other footballer and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has scored half the number goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Indeed this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. Upon reviewing at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Be it because of injuries - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - extended transfer dramas in one particular striker's situation or simply because their teams have struggled (several proven attackers), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have not fired so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Although the Norwegian appears the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is presented to the player with the most goals in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is considerably more open at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in excellent condition, with eleven and nine strikes each.

The fact Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the top chance quality metric of the trio without yet taking any spot-kicks positions him as the likely winner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are among the finest finishers in European soccer in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the competition remains open.